How to beat the Italian Game, by the numbers (392 top-player games)
Quick answer
How do you beat the Italian Game as Black? It's one of the hardest openings to face: top players scored 53% in 116 games against it as Black on Chess.com (-14 vs their 67% Black average) and 55% in 114 on Lichess (-7 vs 62%). The Two Knights (3...Nf6) held up better than 3...Bc5 on both sites: 57% in 65 vs 45% in 40 on Chess.com, 60% in 68 vs 51% in 37 on Lichess (the 3...Bc5 rows are hints). And don't rush ...d5: outside the 4.Ng5 lines, Black players who pushed it by move 6 scored 35% in 13 on Chess.com and 44% in 18 on Lichess, against 54% and 54% when they kept it back for the first 10 moves (small samples, a hint). Fast games and small samples, so read it as a strong hint, not proof.
The Italian Game (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4) looks quiet, which is exactly why it's annoying: White develops, plays d3 and c3, and waits for Black to overreach. We sorted every Italian in our two samples by the moves actually played (any move order, so 2.Bc4 Nc6 3.Nf3 counts): 210 games among the top 50 Chess.com blitz players and 182 among the top 100 titled Lichess players. It was about 26% of the 1.e4 e5 games the Chess.com players had as Black, and 22% on Lichess. Score means points per game for the top player (win 1, draw ½). Compare with their averages (73% with White and 67% with Black on Chess.com, 67% and 62% on Lichess), not with 50%.
Short answer
- The Italian is hard to face, even for top players. As Black against it, top Chess.com blitz players scored 53% in 116 games (-14 vs their 67% average); titled Lichess players 55% in 114 games (-7 vs their 62% average). Playing it as White they scored 76% in 107 games (+3 vs their 73% average) on Chess.com and 71% in 73 games (+4 vs their 67% average) on Lichess. (Our Italian Game page groups games by the site's opening name instead of the moves, so its numbers differ slightly.)
- The Two Knights (3...Nf6) held up better for Black than 3...Bc5. Black side: 57% in 65 games (-10 vs their 67% average) with 3...Nf6 on Chess.com vs 45% in 40 games (-22 vs their 67% average; under 50 games, a hint) with 3...Bc5; on Lichess 60% in 68 games (-2 vs their 62% average) vs 51% in 37 games (-11 vs their 62% average; under 50 games, a hint). The White side agrees on Lichess (White scored 66% in 43 vs the Two Knights, 80% in 23 vs 3...Bc5) but not on Chess.com (80% in 52 vs 73% in 45), so it's a lean, not a rule.
- The slow d3 set-up is what you'll mostly face. Black scored 54% in 84 games (-13 vs their 67% average) against it on Chess.com and 59% in 57 games (-3 vs their 62% average) on Lichess. Most of Black's games against the Italian were against this set-up, so it drives the overall number.
- Early d4 lines (Scotch Gambit, c3 and d4) are rarer but scored well for White. Black faced them in 13 Chess.com games (35%) and 20 on Lichess (42%), White scored 78% in 25 and 79% in 21. All hints.
- Patience with ...d5 scored better, on the Black side. Outside 4.Ng5 lines (where ...d5 is close to forced), Black pushing ...d5 by move 6 scored 35% in 13 games (-32 vs their 67% average; under 50 games, a hint) on Chess.com and 44% in 18 games (-18 vs their 62% average; under 50 games, a hint) on Lichess, vs 54% in 89 games (-13 vs their 67% average) and 54% in 62 games (-8 vs their 62% average) with no ...d5 in the first 10 moves. The White side doesn't confirm it on Chess.com (White scored 67% in 18 against an early ...d5 vs 79% in 74 without), so treat it as a hint.
1. Two Knights or Giuoco Piano?
Black's third move, read from the moves. Each cell is the top player's score and the gap to their average; under 50 games is a hint, under 8 is too few to read.
| Black's 3rd move | Chess.com top 50 facing the Italian as Black (avg 67%) | Chess.com top 50 playing it as White (avg 73%) | Lichess titled facing it as Black (avg 62%) | Lichess titled playing it as White (avg 67%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two Knights (3...Nf6) | 57% in 65 (-10) | 80% in 52 (+7) | 60% in 68 (-2) | 66% in 43 (-1), hint |
| Giuoco Piano (3...Bc5) | 45% in 40 (-22), hint | 73% in 45 (±0), hint | 51% in 37 (-11), hint | 80% in 23 (+13), hint |
| Other 3rd moves | 59% in 11 (-8), hint | 61% in 9 (-12), hint | 6 games, too few | 5 games, too few |
2. Which White set-up you'll face
White's plan in the first 10 moves: 4.Ng5 against the Two Knights, an early d4 (by move 5, including the Scotch Gambit and c3 with d4), or the slow d3 set-up with no d4 (Giuoco Pianissimo, the modern main line). Against 4.Ng5 titled Lichess players as Black scored 70% in 23 (a hint).
| White's set-up | Chess.com top 50 facing the Italian as Black (avg 67%) | Chess.com top 50 playing it as White (avg 73%) | Lichess titled facing it as Black (avg 62%) | Lichess titled playing it as White (avg 67%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slow d3, no d4 (Giuoco Pianissimo) | 54% in 84 (-13) | 73% in 56 (±0) | 59% in 57 (-3) | 67% in 39 (±0), hint |
| Early d4 (by move 5) | 35% in 13 (-32), hint | 78% in 25 (+5), hint | 42% in 20 (-20), hint | 79% in 21 (+12), hint |
| Other set-ups | 57% in 14 (-10), hint | 79% in 17 (+6), hint | 36% in 14 (-26), hint | 7 games, too few |
| 4.Ng5 (vs Two Knights) | 5 games, too few | 78% in 9 (+5), hint | 70% in 23 (+8), hint | 6 games, too few |
3. When to push ...d5
The classic Italian question: when does Black break with ...d5? Here's Black's ...d5 timing in every Italian except the 4.Ng5 lines (where 4...d5 is the main move anyway). A game counts as “no ...d5” if Black hadn't played it in the first 10 moves. Small samples, so these are hints.
| Black's ...d5 | Chess.com top 50 facing the Italian as Black (avg 67%) | Chess.com top 50 playing it as White (avg 73%) | Lichess titled facing it as Black (avg 62%) | Lichess titled playing it as White (avg 67%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ...d5 by move 6 | 35% in 13 (-32), hint | 67% in 18 (-6), hint | 44% in 18 (-18), hint | 71% in 21 (+4), hint |
| ...d5 on moves 7-10 | 50% in 9 (-17), hint | 6 games, too few | 50% in 11 (-12), hint | 6 games, too few |
| no ...d5 in the first 10 moves | 54% in 89 (-13) | 79% in 74 (+6) | 54% in 62 (-8) | 68% in 40 (+1), hint |
4. How to play it as Black
- Pick 3...Nf6 if you're unsure. It scored better for the Black side on both sites (a lean: the White side on Chess.com doesn't agree). Know one answer to 4.Ng5 (4...d5 5.exd5 Na5 is the main line).
- Against the slow d3 lines, don't break first. Finish development (...Be7 or ...Bc5, ...d6, ...O-O, often ...a6 and ...h6), keep the e5 pawn, and play ...d5 when it can't be met by exd5 and a tactic on e5 or f7.
- Against early d4, take on d4 and develop fast; the danger is f7 and the e-file, not a long-term pawn deficit.
- Full plans and a line to play are in the Italian Game guide; facing the Spanish instead? See the Ruy Lopez guide.
5. What matters more than the line
- Your opponent's Italian. Italian players usually have one set-up (Pianissimo, early d4 or 4.Ng5) and they repeat it. Check before the game: the free opponent preview shows any Chess.com or Lichess player's most-played openings with each colour, and the $5 report shows the exact lines where they score worst.
More from the same data: how to beat the Sicilian Defense, how to beat the French Defense, how to beat the Caro-Kann, how to beat the Queen's Gambit, the best chess openings for Black and the best chess openings for White.
Method: Chess.com sample is the top 50 of the Chess.com live blitz leaderboard on 2026-10-20, each player's most recent rated standard blitz games (up to 150, at most six monthly archives) from the public Chess.com Published-Data API, games played 2026-03-21 to 2026-10-20. Lichess sample is the last 150 rated games of the top 100 titled players on the Lichess leaderboards (2026-10-18). Italian Game = White's first three moves e4, Nf3 and Bc4 against Black's e5 and Nc6 (any order); Black's defence, White's set-up and ...d5 timing are read from the first 10 moves, not the opening name. A game between two sampled players counts once per sampled player. Rows under 50 games are hints; headline claims need 50+ games except where marked. OpeningSpy is independent and not affiliated with Chess.com or Lichess.